The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, including three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to believe so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.
"All the money is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
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Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke with a number of bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really respected player."
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Even though reputable cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are piling on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
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While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We chatted with numerous bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has actually approached a little to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at many sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable money pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The total has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
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The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the wagering action.
Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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